JAMES CARVILLE

Manager of Bill Clinton's 1992 presidential campaign; CNN political contributor

Extraordinary youth turnout will surprise many, but it shouldn't. Young voters will vote overwhelmingly Democratic up and down the ballot in record numbers. As for a surprise on Tuesday, the combination of Ralph Nader and Bob Barr's votes will affect the outcome of the presidential election in one or more states. We know that Nader cost Al Gore the election in 2000 by siphoning off votes in Florida. The outcome of this election will not be affected -- Barack Obama will be the next president of the United States. But how large will his electoral margin be? Much has been said about the "Bradley effect." I don't necessarily buy it, but why wouldn't voters who won't vote for an African American or a Republican (the GOP brand is at an all-time low), vote for a third-party candidate? Two states where they may have an impact are Georgia and Montana. Only Barr is on the ballot in Georgia, but in a state that only recently became a toss-up, his home-state support could tip the state's 15 electoral votes to either candidate. Their impact on even just a few states will surprise many.

"CALLER: You can't go backward, you gotta go forward.

RUSH: No. It's like I've been telling you out there, Steven, one step at a time. We drag Yosemite Sam across the finish line, and then after that we deal with the next set of difficulties, challenges, or what have you. One step at a time. Stay focused. All that right now is irrelevant rigmarole. I hope you feel better having vented it. Sometimes that can be therapeutic. But we're all dealt the hand that we're dealt, and we all have to play that hand as it's played. And right now we cannot afford Barack Obama. I'll tell you another reason you need to vote McCain is because voting Republican is going to help down the ballot, and we cannot, gosh, folks, you think Obama would be bad, you let Obama in there with 60 Democrat Senate seats, and that's when we've got some really serious work to do that would be very, very, very hard."



His audience is now 12 times the circulation of The New York Times, he tells me. 'And you can add up CNN, MSNBC and Fox, and my audience is 20 times that. They have no pretence of objectivity. They are activists now and they make no bones about it. CNN, MSNBC and Fox all opinionise. Like I do. They acknowledge this, and so it has become a battle between the two medias. The liberal media see this Obama candidacy as historic because race is a big deal to them. They think this country committed Original Sin. I actually believe that most of their support for Obama is that they are creaming in their jeans about the historical nature of the campaign. They want to be a part of it.They want to make it happen. They want a stake in it. They want to be able to say they did it if Obama wins.'

www.brettmarty.com

2004:





The United States Census Bureau estimates that the state population was 4,861,515 in 2007, a 13.03% increase since the U.S. Census 2000
.










Past Results

This sort of thing has been attempted before, though with limited success:

Hillary Clinton in 2008 on the Hallmark Channel.
Before this year’s Super Tuesday primary, Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton broadcast a live town hall meeting on the Hallmark Channel. It was watched by 540,000 households, or about 705,000 viewers, according to the Nielsen ratings.

Ross Perot in 1992:
Perot’s programs drew an average audience of 11.6 million viewers, or 4.6 percent of viewers nationwide, according to Nielsen. His one simulcast on ABC and CBS on Nov. 2, 1992, attracted 26 million viewers, Nielsen found.


Here's a shout to www.perotcharts.com

McGovern in 1972:



As we are all aware, everyone who previously attempted this sort of maneuver lost their respective elections...

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UPDATE

Obama's infomercial pulled in 26.4 million viewers, sizable increase over past infomercial attempts.

"We applaud Gov. Crist for responding to the overwhelming enthusiasm shown by Florida voters during this election season. To this point, an estimated 2 million Floridians have already cast a ballot over the last eight days," reads a statement from Florida Obama-Biden State Director Steven Schale. "It is critical that everyone who is eligible and eager to vote be able to participate and have their voice heard. And now with the extended hours, thousands more will have that opportunity."

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Dear Red States:

If you manage to steal this election, too, we've decided we're leaving. We intend to form our own country, and we're taking the other Blue States with us. In case you aren't aware, that includes California, Hawaii, Oregon, Washington, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, all the Northeast and some other fine states. We believe this split will be beneficial to the nation, especially to the people of the new country of New California.

To sum up briefly: You get Texas, Oklahoma and all the slave states. We get stem cell research and the best beaches. We get the Statue of Liberty. You get Dollywood.
We get Intel and Microsoft. You get WorldCom.
We get Harvard. You get Ole' Miss.
We get 85% of America's venture capital and entrepreneurs. You get Alabama.
We get two-thirds of the tax revenue. You get to make the red states pay their fair share.
Since our aggregate divorce rate is 22% lower than the Christian Coalition's, we get a bunch of happy families. You get a bunch of single parents.

Please be aware that Nuevo California will be pro-choice and anti-war, and we're going to want all our citizens back from Iraq at once. If you need people to fight, ask your evangelicals. They have kids they're apparently willing to send to their deaths for no purpose, and they don't care if you don't show pictures of their children's caskets coming home. We do wish you success in Iraq and hope that the WMDs turn up, but we're not willing to spend our resources in Bush's Quagmire.

With the Blue States in hand we will have firm control of 80% of the country's fresh water, more than 90% of the pineapple and lettuce, 92% of the nation's fresh fruit, 95% of America's quality wines, 90% of all cheese, 90% of the high tech industry, 95% of the corn and soybeans (thanks Iowa!), the best quality low-sulfur coal, all living redwoods, sequoias and condors, all the Ivy and Seven Sister schools plus Stanford, Cal Tech and MIT.

With the Red States, on the other hand, you will have to cope with 88% of all obese Americans (and their projected health care costs), 92% of all U.S. mosquitoes, 90% of the tornadoes, 90% of the hurricanes, 99% of all Southern Baptists, virtually 100% of all televangelists, Rush Limbaugh, Bob Jones University, Clemson and the University of Georgia.

We get Hollywood, Yosemite, the Columbia Gorge and the North Cascades. Thank you.

Additionally, 38% of those in the Red states believe Jonah was actually swallowed by a whale, 62% believe life is sacred unless we're discussing the war, the death penalty or gun laws, 44% say that evolution is only a theory, 53% that Saddam was involved in 9/11 and 61% of you believe you are people with higher morals then we lefties.

Peace out,
--Blue States

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"Hi, this is Rudy Giuliani and I'm calling for John McCain and the Republican National Committee, because you need to know that Barack Obama opposes mandatory prison sentences for sex offenders, drug dealers, and murderers. It's true, I read Obama's words myself. And recently, Congressional liberals introduced a bill to eliminate mandatory prison sentences for violent criminals -- trying to give liberal judges the power to decide whether criminals are sent to jail or set free. With priorities like these, we just can't trust the inexperience and judgment of Barack Obama and his liberal allies. This call was paid for by the Republican National Committee and McCain-Palin 2008."

98% of Americans earn less than $250,000 per year:


Large numbers of Americans define themselves as "working class" or "middle class," including:
* 50% of those families who earn between $20,000 and $40,000 annually
* 38% of those families who earn between $40,000 and $60,000 annually
* 16.8% of those families who earn over $110,000 annually
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Scratch that. Its now "Joe the Plumber-Congressman."

Dear Colleagues and Friends,

John McCain is a 72 year old man with recurrent melanoma,
hyperlipidemia, degenerative joint disease, and recurrent difficulty
with certain efforts at recall. These are the limited facts the
American people have had access to. Over 1000 pages of medical
records were shown to selected journalists for 3 hours with less than
48 hours of notice. The only medically trained journalist was Sanjey
Gupta, MD from CNN. This is the extent to which the American people
have been informed.

While I am certainly sensitive to the confidential nature of medical
records given the anxiety expressed by many of my patients regarding
the risk of lost coverage or lost jobs in this current health economic
climate, there are certain exceptions for disclosure regarding public
safety. As John McCain knows, a pilots records are comprehensively
available for review by a certifying agency (the FAA, I believe) to
insure the fitness of the pilot and the safety of passengers and the
public at-large. In the election of the President of the United
States of America, that certifying body is the American electorate.

A recurrence of metastatic malignant melanoma would essentially
destroy John McCain's capacity as the Chief Executive and the American
People have yet to receive a full accounting of the facts regarding
his actuarial risk. If he has had regional metastasis, his risk could
be 30% or greater for distant metastasis to the brain, bone, and
lung. As you all know, melanoma is one of the most insidious,
pernicious, and aggressive malignancies our patients must deal with
and that we attempt somewhat pathetically to control with interferon,
interleukins, and dismally active and terribly toxic chemotherapeutic
regimens. In addition, we lack the simple data to sensibly evaluate
his cardiovascular risk as we would any septuagenerian in our exam
rooms.

John McCain should be held accountable by the american people and its
agents, the free press, to release without restriction the entirety of
his medical records. Any hesitation to do so would clearly imply that
there are significant medical concerns about his ability to fulfill
the duties of the President.

Sincerely,

Michael D. Fratkin, MD
Internal Medicine


But the medical issues of McCain's melanoma, hyperlipidemia, past smoking,
and geriatric cognitive decline are also relevant, and should be advocated
by us, as experts beyond the average pundit or reporter.


Dave Kolva, MD
Family Medicine
Oswego/Syracuse, NY

See more Ron Howard videos at Funny or Die

• Sarah Palin vs. Tina Fey as Sarah Palin

It’s a tie when Americans were asked who they like better: Tina Fey’s Palin (37.4%) or Governor Palin herself (37%). Among women (39%), Americans age 18-34 (45%) and Democrats (66%), Tina Fey’s Palin is the clear winner.

• Late-Night Talk Shows May Lose Viewers Post-Election

Of the Americans whose favorite spoofs are courtesy of SNL, The Daily Show, The Colbert Report or Real Time with Bill Maher, 3 in 10 say they will watch less of these shows after the election.

• Election Coverage More Exciting Than 90210 and Reality TV?

Among the 18-34 set, 31% said they are watching more election coverage because “it’s a heck of a lot more entertaining than the new 90210.” In addition, one out of five Americans are watching more election coverage to escape their dissatisfaction with reality TV.

• Talk Show Influence
More than 40% of Americans feel that the candidates’ appearances on talk shows have some influence on their opinion of the candidates.

• Celebrity Influence
More than half of Americans (53%) feel celebrity endorsements can have some influence on the candidates’ appeal. Those 25-34 (59%) and Democrats (64%) are more likely to feel that celebrity endorsement has influence on the candidates’ appeal.

• Celebrity Appeal Decreases When Voters Dislike Celebrity’s Candidate Choice
Overall, more than half of Americans said that celebrity endorsements do not impact their perception of the celebrity whether they like or dislike the candidate the celebrity endorsed. However, 32% of Americans age 18-24 said they like a celebrity more when that celebrity endorses their preferred candidate, and 41% of Americans overall feel they like celebrities less when that celebrity endorses a candidate they dislike (50% among Republicans).

link

John McCain was born on August 29th, 1936. If elected, he would be the oldest person inaugurated to a first-term as President, at 72.

According to Census Department estimates for July 1st, 2007, there are 301,621,157 people currently living in the United States - and 274,485,639 (or 91%) of them are younger than 70. By comparison, roughly 68% of the population is the same age or younger than Barack Obama.

They went see the movie Do The Right Thing on their first date.

MyWay

Full video of the debate here.

Time Magazine's Mark Halperin grades the candidates' performances:
McCain: B
Substance: Grade: B-
Style: Grade: B
Offense: Grade: B+
Defense: Grade: B

Obama: B+
Substance: Grade: B+
Style: Grade: B+
Offense: Grade: B+
Defense: Grade: B+
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AOL:

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CBS News:
Who will make the right decisions on the economy?

After debate: Obama 68, McCain 49

Before debate: Obama 54, McCain 41

Who understands voters’ needs and problems?

After debate: Obama 80, McCain 46

Before debate: Obama 60, McCain 35

Who is prepared for the job of president?

After debate: Obama 57, McCain 84

Before debate: Obama 42, McCain 80
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NBC News:


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Drudge Report:

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Fox News:

McCain and Palin have stepped up their attacks in the past few days, particularly on the William Ayers and Rev. Jeremiah Wright fronts. While the overwhelming trend is for campaign to become increasingly negative during October, it isn't difficult to assume that the McCain campaign's increased negativity is a direct result of its polling numbers falling off a cliff over the past few weeks:



The real matter is whether McCain's, or rather Palin's (as she is stepping it up in her pit bull role of late) attacks will gain any traction? The problem is not only that Americans are overwhelmingly focused on the economy right now, but that Palin's line of attacks have already been "vetted" in a sense - by Hillary Clinton. My guess is that only a very small fraction of the voting public has yet to be exposed to either the William Ayers or Rev. Wright stories. In effect, McCain and Palin are essentially bringing a knife to a gun fight, as Obama & CO. have held back their best line of attack -- the Keating 5 scandal -- simply waiting for the best opportunity to use the story as a counter attack.

What attack seems more relevant today to the typical American voter who is still undecided?



OR

"I'm gettin' jacked,
I'm breakin' myself
I can't believe they taking Warren's wealth
They took my rings,
They took my Rolex
I looked at the brotha said
'Damn, what's next?' "

-Warren G, Regulators

The current financial crisis turns our attention back towards the last great American financial crisis - the Savings and Loan collapse in the late 1980s early 1990s which came as a direct result of deregulation put into effect during the Reagan administration. Of particular interest is the role John McCain played in the Keating 5 Scandal:




McCain's Lawyer during the scandal responds:



But, Dowd preferred Fred Thompson's candidacy for President in 2008.

Not to belabor the point, but its difficult to argue your record as a regulator when your running mate is left stumped:

Full video of the actual debate here.



I think Biden, who is notorious for speaking his mind and not mincing words, was successful in his most important goal: to avoid appearing condescending, as George Bush Sr. did in the first and only other mixed-sex Vice Presidential debate:

(UPDATE)

Apparently, the correct terminology is:

"Drill, baby, drill!"

This is a great demonstration of how the McCain campaign has done a complete 180 on the experience issue, and now seems to be pandering to potentially bitter female Hillary supporters.

As you can see in the graph below (source), interest in Palin's nomination, as gauged by Google search queries, was significantly higher than that surrounding Obama's decision to add Joe Biden to the Democratic ticket.




Will the hype last? Its hard to tell, but I would be willing to bet the numbers are skewed somewhat because a month ago she was completely unknown to the general public of ALL parties -- except for Adam Brickley, who you may have seen the other day on the Colbert Report.

If you, like me, have received several off the wall emails just after Palin's nomination, feel free to forward them to me at callmehoratio@gmail.com. Perhaps I can put together a compilation of the most "informative."